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How The Market Gets Interest Rate Predictions Wrong

South State Correspondent

In a few short months, stronger economic data (higher GDP, stronger job market, and stubborn inflation) changed the market’s and the Fed’s view on the future path of interest rates. The market and the Fed are now aligning on only one rate cut in 2024 – obviously this will change over the course of the year as the economic data evolves.

Marketing 195
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Bank Value: Here is a Better Way to Calculate and Manage

South State Correspondent

This article examines why the standard way to value a bank is flawed and how to have a better methodology. The Better Way to Calculate Value: Customers and Product If you lower deposit rates in this market, you will likely lose customers to competition that may be paying 5% or greater. Now, we want to add another layer.

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What Banks Can Learn from the Republic Bank Failure

South State Correspondent

A slew of articles have been published explaining the reason for this bank’s failure. Not The Root Causes We think that the most disingenuous cause of the bank’s failure as cited in various articles is the “uncertain environment.” However, that faster growth was not unusual and reflects the bank’s higher growth markets.

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Silicon Valley Bank Failure – Lessons in Interest Rate Risk Management

South State Correspondent

While we will cover the general lessons HERE , in this article, we wanted to focus on the root cause – how and why interest rate risk caused the second-largest bank failure in US history (Washington Mutual was the largest in 2008). Equally important is the bank’s securities duration, as shown in the graph below.

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Should You Be Marking Loans To Market?

South State Correspondent

Available-for-sale securities are reported at fair value, and any unrealized gains and losses are included in accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) in the equity section of the balance sheet. The AOCI is an accounting adjustment meant to reflect the economic value of assets and is the process of “marking loans to market.”

Marketing 195
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Managing Stagflation Credit Risk in Banking – Part III

South State Correspondent

In this article, we analyze why 75% LTV may not protect banks from credit risk on commercial loans and why there is only one source of loan repayment. . Loans below 1.50X starting DSCR cannot withstand the current market expected rise in interest rates if cash flow decreases by just 10%. Background.

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Bank Product Profitability and Productivity

South State Correspondent

In our last article ( HERE ), we highlighted the methodology around why banks should calculate and drive value through customer profitability and product profitability. In this article, we wanted a different approach to arrive at the same conclusion but in a slightly different context. BB&T was the more asset-productive bank.

Study 195