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Small business lending insights Vol. 1

Abrigo

DOWNLOAD Takeaway 1 SMBs and financial institutions face tremendous uncertainty in the current environment, which is characterized by elevated interest rates, high inflation, and growing personal delinquency rates. Our data below shows SMB loan originations have followed a similar trend.

Lending 221
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How To Let Borrowers Choose the Wrong Loan Structure

South State Correspondent

We estimate that the average contractual loan commitment for term credit at community banks has decreased from just under five years in 2022 to just under three years currently. For example, at the start of 2024 the market expected six interest rate cuts, while at the time of writing this article the market expects only 2.6

How To 195
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How The Market Gets Interest Rate Predictions Wrong

South State Correspondent

In a few short months, stronger economic data (higher GDP, stronger job market, and stubborn inflation) changed the market’s and the Fed’s view on the future path of interest rates. The market and the Fed are now aligning on only one rate cut in 2024 – obviously this will change over the course of the year as the economic data evolves.

Marketing 195
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6 Concepts Borrowers Must Understand About The Lending Curve

South State Correspondent

Most borrowers have a rudimentary understanding of interest rates, the yield curve, forward rates, and forward premiums. Commercial lenders should not try to help their clients predict future interest rates because that is impossible and does not create value for the relationship.

Lending 195
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How Federal Debt May Impact Banking

South State Correspondent

These changes may occur swiftly, such as interest rate changes, inflation changes, or unemployment rate changes. However, the common thinking is that increasing federal government debt leads to higher interest rates over longer periods. As interest rates rise and remain higher, the value of deposits will grow.

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The Power Of Three – Using Our Updated Loan Proposal Generator

South State Correspondent

Our article last week ( HERE ) discussed the “power of three” marketing rule and how to use it for loan proposals. In this article, we provide our loan proposal generator that will help steer borrowers into optimal financing decisions. It can also show forward starting rates (for construction through term).

Tools 195
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Yield Curve Impact on Bank Profits

South State Correspondent

The bigger risk to community banks’ business model is not a moderate recession induced by aggressive interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. The Fed may be nearing the end of its hiking cycle, but given the high threshold for interest rate cuts, there may be no changes in the Fed Funds rate until well after 2024.