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Loan Hedging for Community Banks in 2024

South State Correspondent

Community banks’ use of swaps (banks’ primary tool to hedge interest rate risk on loans) has increased substantially over the last ten years. The market expects the current inverted yield curve to remain through much of 2024 (based on long-term interest rates and the expected rate cuts in 2024).

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Derivatives Usage By Community Banks

South State Correspondent

However, the adoption of interest rate swaps is much lower at community banks (banks with under $10B in assets), with only a few hundred banks showing interest rate swap volume. The market expects deposit betas to increase through 2023 and 2024. S&P projected COF and betas are shown in the graph below.

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Predicting Community Bank Cost of Funds

South State Correspondent

Community bank cost of funds is jumping up. As shown in the graph below, the net interest margin (NIM) for community banks declined 22bps in Q1’23. The question is – what will happen to community bank’s cost of funds from here?

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How QT will Impact Cost of Funding in 2024

South State Correspondent

Most market participants are focused on just one monetary policy tool available to the Fed – short-term, federal funds rates. Bankers must understand the relationship between money supply and their bank’s COF. The graph below shows COF for the same three groups of banks. Increase product engagement and duration.

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1Q 2024 Commercial Relationship Credit and Pricing Trends

South State Correspondent

Since our last update on pricing and credit HERE , commercial loan pricing trends for the first quarter of 2024 continue to be driven by the perceived increase in credit risk, tighter credit supply and banks’ need for wider margins. percentage points bringing forward looking LGD to 44% of the average community bank loan amount.

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The community banks standing by hospitality customers

Independent Banker

Many hotels and other hospitality businesses haven’t fully bounced back from COVID-19 travel and safety restrictions, but community banks have been by their side through the challenges. MainStreet Bank has a sizable hotel loan portfolio with roughly $100 million in loans on 15 properties. Sushil Patel, State Bank of Texas.

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If You Are Tired of Being Transactional, You Need A Hedge Program

South State Correspondent

An inverted yield curve, continued bank failures, and the desire to manage risk and offer clients higher service are all factors that are driving more community banks to adopt a loan hedge program. Community banks do this profitably by turning transactional accounts into relationships.