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Loan Hedging for Community Banks in 2024

South State Correspondent

Community banks’ use of swaps (banks’ primary tool to hedge interest rate risk on loans) has increased substantially over the last ten years. The market expects the current inverted yield curve to remain through much of 2024 (based on long-term interest rates and the expected rate cuts in 2024).

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How QT will Impact Cost of Funding in 2024

South State Correspondent

Most market participants are focused on just one monetary policy tool available to the Fed – short-term, federal funds rates. Bankers must understand the relationship between money supply and their bank’s COF. The graph below shows COF for the same three groups of banks. Increase product engagement and duration.

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1Q 2024 Commercial Relationship Credit and Pricing Trends

South State Correspondent

Since our last update on pricing and credit HERE , commercial loan pricing trends for the first quarter of 2024 continue to be driven by the perceived increase in credit risk, tighter credit supply and banks’ need for wider margins. percentage points bringing forward looking LGD to 44% of the average community bank loan amount.

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Derivatives Usage By Community Banks

South State Correspondent

However, the adoption of interest rate swaps is much lower at community banks (banks with under $10B in assets), with only a few hundred banks showing interest rate swap volume. The market expects deposit betas to increase through 2023 and 2024. S&P projected COF and betas are shown in the graph below.

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Predicting Community Bank Cost of Funds

South State Correspondent

Community bank cost of funds is jumping up. As shown in the graph below, the net interest margin (NIM) for community banks declined 22bps in Q1’23. The question is – what will happen to community bank’s cost of funds from here?

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Guest Post: Financial Markets and Economic Update - First Quarter 2024

Jeff For Banks

In the markets, we watched helplessly as real GDP plummeted -5% in 1Q20 and -31% in 2Q20 before rebounding by +33% in 3Q20. I’ve previously theorized that China would try to reclaim its global market share lost during the pandemic by flooding the markets with cheaper goods. 2024 could exceed -$2.0 Here's a rant.

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Why community bank stocks could rally in 2024

American Banker

A resilient economy and the potential for interest rate cuts could infuse further bullish sentiment into markets and bolster the shares of small lenders.