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1Q 2024 Commercial Relationship Credit and Pricing Trends

South State Correspondent

Since our last update on pricing and credit HERE , commercial loan pricing trends for the first quarter of 2024 continue to be driven by the perceived increase in credit risk, tighter credit supply and banks’ need for wider margins. percentage points bringing forward looking LGD to 44% of the average community bank loan amount.

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Derivatives Usage By Community Banks

South State Correspondent

However, the adoption of interest rate swaps is much lower at community banks (banks with under $10B in assets), with only a few hundred banks showing interest rate swap volume. The market expects deposit betas to increase through 2023 and 2024. S&P projected COF and betas are shown in the graph below.

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If You Are Tired of Being Transactional, You Need A Hedge Program

South State Correspondent

An inverted yield curve, continued bank failures, and the desire to manage risk and offer clients higher service are all factors that are driving more community banks to adopt a loan hedge program. Community banks do this profitably by turning transactional accounts into relationships.

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If You Are Tired of Being Transactional, You Need A Hedge Program

South State Correspondent

An inverted yield curve, continued bank failures, and the desire to manage risk and offer clients higher service are all factors that are driving more community banks to adopt a loan hedge program. Community banks do this profitably by turning transactional accounts into relationships.

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Yield Curve Impact on Bank Profits

South State Correspondent

The bigger risk to community banks’ business model is not a moderate recession induced by aggressive interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. The Fed may be nearing the end of its hiking cycle, but given the high threshold for interest rate cuts, there may be no changes in the Fed Funds rate until well after 2024.

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How To Let Borrowers Choose the Wrong Loan Structure

South State Correspondent

We estimate that the average contractual loan commitment for term credit at community banks has decreased from just under five years in 2022 to just under three years currently. Community banks should carefully consider the prudence of such a strategy from both a risk and revenue perspective.

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Risk of Derivatives – The Fall of an Index

South State Correspondent

Bloomberg recently announced that it will shut down its BSBY index on November 15, 2024. With the development of the term SOFR market, BSBY offers no perceived advantages over SOFR, Fed Funds, or Prime. BSBY was not well received by US regulators from its inception, but the market eventually embraced SOFR over BSBY.