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Loan Hedging for Community Banks in 2024

South State Correspondent

Community banks’ use of swaps (banks’ primary tool to hedge interest rate risk on loans) has increased substantially over the last ten years. The market expects the current inverted yield curve to remain through much of 2024 (based on long-term interest rates and the expected rate cuts in 2024).

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How QT will Impact Cost of Funding in 2024

South State Correspondent

Bankers must understand the relationship between money supply and their bank’s COF. Even if the Fed does not increase the Fed Funds rate or even decreases the rate in the future, continued QT is expected to put pressure on the cost of funding in 2024. The graph below shows COF for the same three groups of banks.

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Derivatives Usage By Community Banks

South State Correspondent

Of the largest 250 banks, 90% are using interest rate swaps, and because these largest 250 banks hold 83% of all loans, interest rate hedging tools are widely used in approximately 75% of the loan marketplace. The market expects deposit betas to increase through 2023 and 2024.

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Predicting Community Bank Cost of Funds

South State Correspondent

Community bank cost of funds is jumping up. As shown in the graph below, the net interest margin (NIM) for community banks declined 22bps in Q1’23. The question is – what will happen to community bank’s cost of funds from here?

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These Are Your Most Profitable Cash Management Clients

South State Correspondent

The treasury or cash management customer is usually a bank’s most profitable customer on a risk-adjusted basis ( HERE ). In this article, we discuss cash management profitability and rank the most profitable industries for banks to go after. Cash flow stability is also a factor in cash management profitability.

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Risk of Derivatives – The Fall of an Index

South State Correspondent

Barings Bank, Orange County (CA), Enron, Long-Term Capital Management, and other entities misused derivatives or didn’t understand the difference between hedging and speculating. Some bankers will soon hear about another example of banks using derivatives that, unfortunately, will lead to losses. No ISDA documents.

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Yield Curve Impact on Bank Profits

South State Correspondent

The bigger risk to community banks’ business model is not a moderate recession induced by aggressive interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. The yield curve impact is having a negative effect on bank profits. Banks reluctant to commit to fixed-rate terms beyond two or three years are disadvantaged.