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1Q 2024 Commercial Relationship Credit and Pricing Trends

South State Correspondent

Since our last update on pricing and credit HERE , commercial loan pricing trends for the first quarter of 2024 continue to be driven by the perceived increase in credit risk, tighter credit supply and banks’ need for wider margins. percentage points bringing forward looking LGD to 44% of the average community bank loan amount.

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Derivatives Usage By Community Banks

South State Correspondent

Of the largest 250 banks, 90% are using interest rate swaps, and because these largest 250 banks hold 83% of all loans, interest rate hedging tools are widely used in approximately 75% of the loan marketplace. The market expects deposit betas to increase through 2023 and 2024.

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5 potential catalysts for community bank earnings in 2024

American Banker

Bankers are hopeful that several factors could strengthen profits next year, including higher loan demand and more stable funding costs as the Fed holds the line on — or even lowers — interest rates.

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Yield Curve Impact on Bank Profits

South State Correspondent

The bigger risk to community banks’ business model is not a moderate recession induced by aggressive interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. The yield curve impact is having a negative effect on bank profits. The market currently does not see, on the balance of probability, interest rate cuts until Q2’24.

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Risk of Derivatives – The Fall of an Index

South State Correspondent

Bloomberg recently announced that it will shut down its BSBY index on November 15, 2024. We published various articles comparing community bank alternatives to LIBOR (such as SOFR, Ameribor, Fed Funds, and Prime). Historically, community banks have hesitated to adopt derivatives for several reasons.

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How To Let Borrowers Choose the Wrong Loan Structure

South State Correspondent

We estimate that the average contractual loan commitment for term credit at community banks has decreased from just under five years in 2022 to just under three years currently. Community banks should carefully consider the prudence of such a strategy from both a risk and revenue perspective.

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Developing leaders in mortgage lending – Navigating uncertainty with leadership strategies

Independent Banker

percent through 2024—a number above the long-term growth rate of 2 percent–what should be of interest to lenders during this time is the direction of interest rates. What it means for community banks is clear. Developing leaders in mortgage lending. While the U.S. economic growth rate is predicted to settle upwards of 2.5