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Stressing the importance of stress tests

Abrigo

Yesterday the Federal Reserve announced how “the big banks” fared on their annual stress tests (The Wall Street Journal’s Briefly blog offers what to know and what is relevant about the exams). It was a critical day in the eyes of those at Bank of America, Chase, Wells Fargo and others at the top.

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Guest Post: Financial Markets & Economic Update 4Q23 by Dorothy Jaworski

Jeff For Banks

Unsurprisingly, the largest declines occurred starting monthly in March, 2006 and on a y-o-y basis in September, 2006 and continued to November, 2009. The largest monthly decline took place in May, 2009 at -27.2% Dorothy has been with Penn Community Bank and its predecessor since November, 2004.

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The Niche Bank

Jeff For Banks

Me to a community banker: Why don't you offer more options than real estate secured lending to help fund early stage businesses? Banker: Because that's not community banking. I've been in this business over 20 years and still don't know the definition of community banking. their yield on loans in 2009 was 12.19%.

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Guest Post: Financial Markets and Economic Commentary by Dorothy Jaworski

Jeff For Banks

and is at risk of falling. in eight of the forty-one quarters since 2009. Both spread inversions precede recession by 13 months (as in 2000 for the 2001 recession) to 26 months (as in 2006 for the 2008-2009 recession). Since June, 2009, GDP has risen a cumulative +25%, compared to +42.6% Core PCE has only exceeded 2.0%

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Guest Post: FInancial Markets and Economic Update by Dorothy Jaworski

Jeff For Banks

annually since 2009, while the record expansion of the 1990s saw growth of 3.6%. One of the causes of low growth since 2009 is uncovered! Low productivity continues, just as it has since this recovery began in 2009, averaging only 1.3% Another of the causes of low growth since 2009 is unveiled! The economy has grown 2.2%

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What's With Regulator Agita Over Bank Commercial Real Estate Lending?

Jeff For Banks

But isn't fast growth by itself an indicator of increased risk of failure, regardless of the loans that fueled the growth? Risk mitigants tend to lag growth, especially fast growth. And success is the great mollifier to risk managers that wish to take away the punch bowl when the party's rockin'.

Lending 60
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Predicting the Next Banking Crisis Is a Fool’s Game. Not Learning From the Last One: Equally Foolish

Jeff For Banks

The Great Recession, in contrast to the relatively short dot-com bubble recession, officially lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, the longest recession since the Great Depression. Although community banks did not lend to sub-prime borrowers in any meaningful way, did we participate? What caused it?

FDIC 78