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Signaling Caution

Independent Banker

Regulators warn once again about rising CRE concentrations and risks. Just about every community bank makes commercial real estate loans. A whopping 95 percent of ICBA members are active commercial real estate (CRE) lenders, according to the latest ICBA Community Bank Lending Survey. By Howard Schneider.

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Predicting the Next Banking Crisis Is a Fool’s Game. Not Learning From the Last One: Equally Foolish

Jeff For Banks

The dot-com bubble recession began in March 2001 and lasted only 8 months. percent of all jobs in 2001 to 11.3 By comparison, non-high-tech industries lost 689,000 jobs between 2001 and 2002 but recovered the lost jobs by 2004. Most of the more than 500 financial institutions that failed were community banks.

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Guest Post: Financial Markets and Economic Commentary by Dorothy Jaworski

Jeff For Banks

Both spread inversions precede recession by 13 months (as in 2000 for the 2001 recession) to 26 months (as in 2006 for the 2008-2009 recession). We just beat out the March, 1991 to March, 2001 record of 120 months, making this the longest expansion since 1854. from 1991 to 2001. Thanks to a CNBC article for these statistics).

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Guest Post: Financial Markets & Economic Update 4Q23 by Dorothy Jaworski

Jeff For Banks

The chart showed eerily similar patterns of declines in 1990 and 2000-2001. Jaworski 10/28/23 Dorothy Jaworski has worked at large and small banks for over 30 years; much of that time has been spent in investment portfolio management, risk management, and financial analysis.

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Guest Post: FInancial Markets and Economic Update by Dorothy Jaworski

Jeff For Banks

We have one year to go to match the longest expansion since World War II, which was the prosperous period engineered by Maestro Greenspan from March, 1991 to March, 2001. Dorothy has been with Penn Community Bank and its predecessor since November, 2004. And does the following sound familiar?

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Guest Post: Financial Markets and Economic Update by Dorothy Jaworski

Jeff For Banks

History has shown that inverted yield curves precede recessions by 18 to 24 months on average, as we saw in 1990, 2001, and 2005. Indeed, banks generally pull back on lending if longer-term loan rates are less than their cost of funds, which are generally based on shorter-term rates. 27%; the Fed recently said that a cushion of.40%

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Guest Post: Financial Markets and Economic Update by Dorothy Jaworski

Jeff For Banks

The longest expansion on record was from March, 1991 to March, 2001, with growth of 3.6%, engineered by Maestro Greenspan. DJ 10/17/18 Dorothy Jaworski has worked at large and small banks for over 30 years; much of that time has been spent in investment portfolio management, risk management, and financial analysis.