A member of staff in PPE waiting to serve drinkers at the reopening of Wetherspoons’ Toll Gate pub, in Hornsey, north London. Photograph: Aaron Chown/PA
A member of staff in PPE waiting to serve drinkers at the reopening of Wetherspoons’ Toll Gate pub, in Hornsey, north London. Photograph: Aaron Chown/PA
We started the day with a warning from Credit Suisse that it will take a 4.4 billion Swiss franc hit (£3.4bn) over the Archegos Capital fallout.
Compounded by the crisis surrounding Greensill Capital, the bank said it’s now facing a 900m Swiss franc loss (£690m) for Q1. Two execs are leaving as a result, bonuses have been scrapped and dividends slashed.
But European stocks were solidly in positive territory throughout the trading day, helped by pent up trading over the long Easter weekend.
The FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 were among the best performers, as the planned easing of lockdowns in England fuelled interest in commodity stocks, pubs and leisure companies.
Meanwhile, official figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) showed new car registrations in the UK rose 11.5% in March, compared to a year earlier, totalling 283,964 vehicles.
And in further positive news for the UK, the IMF revised its global and UK growth forecasts higher, citing stronger than expected recovery from the Covid crisis.
A deliveroo delivery driver cycles through the centre of Manchester. Riders are planning a strike on Wednesday. Photograph: Phil Noble/Reuters
Just days after Deliveroo made its (conditional, yet disappointing) stock market debut last week, its riders are planning a strike.
“Hundreds” of Deliveroo riders from the Independent Workers’ Union of Great Britain (IWGB) are expected to hold socially distanced protests in London, York, Sheffield, Reading and Wolverhampton on Wednesday, the union said.
They’re demanding fairer firing policies, better pay, and health and safety protection for riders.
It comes after analysis by the Bureau for Investigative Journalism found that riders were making as little as £2 an hour, and will coincide with the unconditional trading of Deliveroo’s shares on the London Stock Exchange.
Greg Howard, a Deliveroo rider and chair of the Couriers & Logistics Branch of the IWGB has said:
I’m going on strike for my basic rights and those of all the other riders struggling to get by and support families on Deliveroo poverty pay.
I’ve seen conditions decline for years and then working through lockdown I contracted Covid-19 and got very little support from Deliveroo.
After the pandemic more people than ever understand this exploitation is no way to treat anyone, let alone key workers. The turning of the tide is clear. It’s time for rights for riders.
A number of institutional investors refused to take part in Deliveroo’s IPO, with some citing ethical concerns about working conditions for riders who not entitled to earn a minimum wage, holiday or sick pay.
IMF raises growth forecasts for global economy, including UK
Larry Elliott
Stronger recoveries from the Covid-19 pandemic in the US, the UK and other rich western countries will result in faster than expected growth for the global economy this year, the International Monetary Fund has predicted.
The Washington-based IMF’s half-yearly World Economic Outlook (WEO) said successful vaccine programmes, businesses adapting to the challenges of lockdown and Joe Biden’s $1.9tn (£1.4tn) stimulus package had been key factors in the upgrade.
After contracting by 3.3% in 2020, the IMF said the world economy would now grow by 6% in 2021 and a further 4.4% in 2022.
🆕 The IMF projects the global economy to grow at 6% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022, following an estimated historic contraction of –3.3% in 2020. More in the just-released April 2021 World Economic Outlook. https://t.co/zMbMuNQBsJ#WEOpic.twitter.com/cycErJy8Bt
The last WEO in October had predicted expansion of 5.2% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022. The October forecast for 2021 was later upgraded to 5.5% growth in January this year.
Of the advanced countries, the US has recorded the biggest improvement in its prospects, with the IMF raising its growth forecasts by 1.3 points to 6.4% in 2021 and 1.0 points to 3.5% in 2022.
The UK is expected to grow by 5.3% in 2021 and by 5.1% in 2022 – an upward revision of 0.8 and 0.1 percentage points respectively since January.
Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s economic counsellor, said in a blog post:
It is one year into the Covid-19 pandemic and the global community still confronts extreme social and economic strain as the human toll rises and millions remain unemployed.
European stocks are all still in positive territory , and the UK’s FTSE 100 is still leading the pack:
Indexes across Europe were trading in positive territory on Tuesday afternoon. Photograph: Tail1/Refinitiv
US futures, meanwhile, are pointing to a lower start for indexes that hit record highs on Monday. But futures have pared losses in the past few hours:
S&P 500 futures are down 0.15%
Dow future are down 0.14%
Nasdaq futures are 0.04% lower
Oil prices are solidly in positive territory, with Brent crude prices up 1.6% at $63.15 and WTI up 1.7% at $59.66.
Stephen Innes, chief global markets strategist at Aaxi says the low prospects of an Iranian nuclear deal are helping lift crude prices:
Oil is rebounding from Monday’s selloff despite the front-month WTI contract still below $60/bbl.
Meanwhile, diplomats are gathering in Vienna to discuss resurrecting a nuclear deal but Iranian, and US representatives will not speak directly, which indicates the odds are slim of breakthrough talks, and picking up crude output from Iran in the near team.
Multimillioniare Philip Day has backed a deal to keep his Peacocks fashion chain afloat – saving 2,000 jobs and just under half of the chain’s 423 stores, our retail correspondent Sarah Butler writes.
The deal comes after more than 200 Peacocks stores closed with the loss of more than 2,000 jobs when the chain called in administrators in November last year.
On Tuesday, EWM Group, the private investment firm controlled by the Day family, said it was providing a deferred loan to a management buyout of Peacocks led by Steve Simpson, the chief executive of Edinburgh Woollen Mill and Day’s right-hand man.
The buyout is also being supported by a group of unnamed Middle East investors, understood to be associates of Day, who are providing working capital to help support Peacocks’ return to trading.
The Cardiff-based budget fashion chain, which Albert Peacock founded as a penny bazaar in Warrington, Cheshire, in 1884, was part of Day’s EWM Group, which included Edinburgh Woollen Mill, Jaeger and Ponden Home. The Jaeger brand was bought by Marks & Spencer in January.
BP has cut its debt faster than expected after a “very strong” first quarter, in which it was able to sell off almost $5bn worth of its assets.
BP chief executive Bernard Looney told investors this morning that net debt fell from $38.9bn at the end of 2020 to $35bn, a target BP had hoped to reach by the end of this year or even early next year.
BP’s chief executive Bernard Looney. Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters
It was able to pay off debt quicker than expected after selling $4.7bn worth of assets in the first quarter and a “very strong business performance”, he explained.
BP’s fast-falling debt could spell a cash windfall for its shareholders after it slashed dividends last year. BP had warned that it would not begin share buybacks until it reached the $35bn debt threshold.
Its share price climbed by 3.5% on Tuesday morning to 299.95p a share.
Shareholders can expect more details on potential share buybacks when it reports its first quarter results on 27 April.
UK prime minister Boris Johnson (L) gestures during a visit to AstraZeneca in Macclesfield, Chesire, northwest England on April 6, 2021, to learn more about their $500m (£360m) investment into the Macclesfield site. Photograph: Dave Thompson/AFP/Getty Images
Prime minister Boris Johnson has given some fresh comments about the AstraZeneca vaccine and the rollout of vaccine passports.
According to Reuters, Johnson has said that that the continued advice is to get your shot.
On vaccine passports, he’s said no Covid certificates will be needed once restrictions are eased further on 17 May.
He said the government is looking at the role of Covid passports for overseas travel and the kind of signals you can provide to prove you are not contagious.
Johnson adds that the wants to make things as easy as possible for Covid tests for travel.
However, the prime minister stressed that the government has to be prudent on international travel.
Today marks the launch of the UK government’s Covid Recovery Loan Scheme, which replaces a trio of government-backed business loan programmes including the Coronavirus business interruption loan scheme (CBILS), its larger counterpart CLBILS, and the 100% state-guaranteed bounce back loan scheme (BBLS).
RLS is nowhere near as generous as the other schemes - particularly bounce back loans, which was aimed at the smallest businesses and came with a 2.5% interest rate cap.
📈The Recovery Loan Scheme launches today 🤝80% government guarantee and interest rate cap ➡️Runs until 31 December 2021
But in an apparent effort to wean businesses off of Covid support, the Treasury has set the following terms, that will be managed by participating banks:
Value: Loans are worth £25,001 to £10m per business, though they can be as low as £1,000 for a portion of the scheme offering invoice financing (a branch of lending that has come under greater scrutiny in light of the Greensill debacle)
Government guarantee: The taxpayer will cover 80% of the bank’s potential losses if a borrower goes bust and cannot repay the loan. That’s in line with CBILS and CLBILS.
Pricing: The annual effective rate of interest and upfront and other fees cannot be more than 14.99%. That compares to 2.5% for bounce back loans.
Personal guarantees: Not permitted on loans less than £250,000, and no business owner can be asked to put their own home up as a guarantee. This cause major controversy last year, when the original CBILs scheme was launched.
John Lewis staff getting fitting rooms ready at their White City store ahead of reopening on April 12. A host of retailers have confirmed reopening plans for next Monday as shoppers look forward to a return to bricks and mortar shopping after more than three months. Photograph: Paul Grover/PA
John Lewis is reopening its changing rooms in England for the first time in a year when the high street lockdown ends next week.
The department store is expected to be joined by many other clothing retailers who are taking advantage of a change in government guidelines, which previously urged the closure of fitting rooms during the pandemic.
John Lewis will also be resuming services including children’s shoe fitting, click & collect and beauty packaging recycling at the stores which have been closed since December.
However, only 34 of its shops will reopen after the group announced the permanent closures of eight stores, including Peterborough and York, last month.
A weaker pound is helping lift the FTSE 100, since multinational businesses listed on the blue chip index tend to benefit financially when the UK currency is weaker (since it translates into higher revenues).
The pound is down 0.5% against the US dollar at $1.383.
Against the euro, sterling is also 0.5% lower at €1.170.
Profit taking and some new short positions are the culprit, according to Stuart Cole, chief macro strategist at Equiti Capital. The pound has otherwise been rising on the back of Covid restrictions being eased.
Cited by Reuters, Cole said:
It is the reopening of London this morning that is seeing sterling under some initial pressure, as sellers have returned to take advantage of the rally seen over the last 24 hours or so.
The last rise in UK leisure stocks has helped push the more domestically-focused FTSE 250 to pre-pandemic levels, with the index now edging towards the all-time high reached at the start of 2020.
The FTSE 250 is at pre-pandemic highs. Photograph: Tail1/Refinitiv
Neil Wilson, chief market analyst for Markets.com says:
The domestically-focused FTSE 250 is up another 1% to above 22,000, moving closer the Jan 2020 all-time high as the UK’s economic recovery and exit from lockdown remains on track.
Reopening favourites Cineworld, Carnival and National Express were all up about 5%.
Minister for COVID Vaccine Deployment Nadhim Zahawi visits the Cullimore Chemist, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Edgware, London, Britain January 14, 2021. Photograph: Paul Childs/Reuters
Speaking to the Today programme on BBC Radio 4 this morning, the UK’s vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi confirmed that vaccine passports will not immediately be required as England’s economy re-opens but their use is still on the table.
Zahawi said:
As the Prime Minister, explained yesterday, you’re not going to be required to have a certificate to go to the pub garden on Monday, or inside the pub in May.
But I think it’s only right and responsible to look at all options available to us to be able to reopen the economy in a safe way as possible, as other countries are doing, [otherwise] I’d have to come to our programme explain why we haven’t done this.
However, he acknowledged that the proposal raised “ethical” questions for people who haven’t or perhaps cannot get the vaccine for a variety of reasons.
Domestically, it does raise a number of ethical issues which is why the Prime Minister has asked Michael Gove to look at and review this and Michael has been consulting with parliamentarians with stakeholders on this issue.
And of course we’re gonna run the pilots, the FA Cup Final, the semi final where initially, we will look at testing technology to see whether we can have mass events.
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