5 potential catalysts for community bank earnings in 2024

November 21, 2023 1:42 PM

Deposit costs continue to climb as loan demand eases amid higher interest rates. Net interest margins, by extension, are getting squeezed. Profits are under pressure.

But community banks have reason for hope as 2023 nears an end. The Federal Reserve, after hiking rates 11 times since March 2022 to cool inflation, has paused on that front for several months. Futures markets have begun to price in an end to the Fed's campaign and, with inflation down substantially late in 2023, some bankers now are looking for rate cuts next year.

Such a development could ease pressure on deposits, lower borrowing costs and bolster loan demand — all potential catalysts for earnings growth. Bankers, speaking to investors during third-quarter earnings season in recent weeks, also vowed to contain noninterest expenses. Some also are gearing up for a new wave of mergers and acquisitions, saying consolidation among small banks could create needed scale and geographic diversity to help lenders capitalize on a possibly improved environment in the year ahead.

It would mark a welcome change. An S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis of 54 publicly traded banks with under $10 billion of assets, for example, found that a solid majority — 35 — posted year-over-year declines in earnings per share.

Against that backdrop, here are five potential drivers for stronger earnings in 2024.

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Deposit costs improve

Banks' funding costs surged in the second quarter following rising interest rates and the prominent failure of two regional banks in March that were hastened in part by deposit runs. The failures amplified already elevated competition for deposits and fueled further cost increases.

That noted, there have been no major bank failures in the second half of this year, relieving nervousness among bank customers, and the Fed has not raised rates since July.

The result: While still high, the pace of funding cost increases eased significantly in the third quarter. The total cost of funds for the banking industry increased 29 basis points from the second quarter to 2.27%. That marked a substantial slowdown from jumps above 40 basis points in each of the three preceding quarters, according to the S&P Global data.

DBRS Morningstar analyst Michael McTamney said that banks' deposit levels "continue to stabilize" and, while costs are still increasing, they are doing so at "a more moderate pace." Adverse impacts from higher funding costs could hit a trough by the end of 2023, he added.

Piper Sandler analyst Stephen Scouten said banks on the whole reported net interest margin contraction in the third quarter, but should the Fed indeed be done increasing rates, margin pressure could hit a "bottom" early in 2024.

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Loan demand picks up

Higher interest rates and recession fears coupled with significant inflation have curbed loan demand this year, eating into banks' ability to generate interest income. Historically, the combination of spiking rates and inflation caused economic contraction.

Yet, the U.S. has added jobs every month this year and the economy grew at a 4.9% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the third quarter, according to the Commerce Department. That was more than double the 2.1% rate of the prior quarter, subduing recession expectations.

At the same time, even with borrowing costs at the highest level in years, U.S. banks on the whole grew loans about 1% during the third quarter, according to weekly Fed data.

During earnings season in late October and early this month, several bankers said they anticipated modest loan demand through the end of this year, followed by a rebound in 2024. The thinking is that confidence in a resilient economy, alongside moderating inflation and interest rates, could give both consumers and businesses more confidence in the macro environment and, by extension, reason to borrow and invest.

Greenwood Village, Colorado-based National Bank Holdings, for example, said its loan growth through the first three quarters of this year averaged 4.8%. But Chief Financial Officer Aldis Birkans said during an earnings call that the $9.9 billion-asset bank's pipelines are "quite strong" and "we certainly look to be above 5%" for the fourth quarter, with momentum heading into next year.

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Credit quality remains stable

First things first: Credit costs have steadily ticked up in 2023, and bankers cautioned that more increases may lie ahead. Office properties are under pressure amid enduring remote work trends. Other pockets of the economy, such as the trucking sector, are weaker due to high costs and slower activity.

But most analysts expect loan loss increases to prove modest and manageable overall, particularly if the broader economy holds strong into next year.

Investors have worried that inflation would cause a surge in credit problems. In past cycles, elevated inflation and high interest rates hampered borrowers' ability to repay loans and credit defaults jumped. But inflation fell from 9.1% at its peak last year to nearly 3% this fall, soothing many of these concerns.

Analysts at D.A. Davidson said in a report that, "if the Fed is really done hiking rates," it would further "ease credit concerns."

Bankers addressed the credit quality outlook with their actions during the third quarter. S&P Global data showed that provisions for credit losses at U.S. banks declined in the quarter. This signaled that bankers are both confident in credit quality and that they have already built up loan-loss reserves adequately in prior quarters, the firm said.

The domestic banking industry reported aggregate provisions of $19.84 billion for the third quarter, a $2.48 billion decline from the prior quarter, according to the S&P Global data.

Tightly controlling expenses

Several bankers during the third quarter announced cost-cutting endeavors or outlined intentions to control noninterest expenses in 2024. Flat or lower costs would offset lighter revenue and support earnings.

Home BancShares in Conway, Arkansas, is a case in point. The $22 billion-asset bank said its Chairman and CEO John Allison agreed to reduce his annual base salary by $250,000 to $500,000, beginning this month. It is part of a broader endeavor, now underway, to bring down costs.

During an earnings call with analysts, Allison said high operating expenses and deposit costs, coupled with pressure on interest income, necessitated the effort.

"We've been working diligently to stop the bleeding, and we're just starting to address the expense side issues," he said. "The expense of non-income producing areas of the bank will have to be addressed, and each department scrutinized. It's really pretty simple: If profits are going down, you either increase revenue or reduce expenses. There is no other way to increase profitability — unless you just want to maintain the status quo."

Allison added, "Someone said recently, 'I hope that if I'm lucky, this will work out.' Well, hope is not a strategy and luck is not a plan. We must plan for what we want to do to improve."

More mergers and acquisitions on the horizon

Mergers and acquisitions momentum slowed this year due to the recession concerns and elevated levels of regulatory scrutiny.

The 86 deals announced through October had an aggregate deal value of $3.8 billion, down from 135 announced deals valued at $7.3 billion over the same period in 2022, according to S&P Global. There were 162 deals announced over all of 2022.

However, Mike Matousek, head trader at U.S. Global Investors, noted that more banks have learned how to navigate the trickier regulatory environment. At the same time, confidence is increasing in the durability of the economy. "That's a good combination" for bank buyers, given that economic and regulatory confidence makes it simpler to assess the health of targets and the likelihood of winning supervisors' approvals to close deals.

Indeed, deal activity increased during the third quarter, compared to the first half of the year. There were 34 deals announced in the third quarter, up from 20 in the first quarter and 25 in the second quarter. Acquisitive banks are pursuing greater scale to more easily absorb costs and to expand business lines and footprints into new markets to generate more revenue. Community banks are often their targets.

Old National Bancorp in Evansville, Indiana, is among those on the deal path. The $49 billion-asset bank said in October it would acquire the $3 billion-asset CapStar Financial Holdings in Nashville in an all stock deal valued at $344.4 million.

The acquisition, expected to close in the second quarter of 2024, would give Old National $2.3 billion of loans and $2.8 billion of deposits. It would gain a top-10 deposit market share presence in the Nashville metropolitan area.

Old National entered Tennessee's largest market in 2022. But, during a call with analysts, CEO Jim Ryan said the deal would help Old National "grow even faster" in Nashville than it could have organically.

"This earnings-accretive partnership is a much cheaper, less dilutive and significantly faster way for us to build scale in this dynamic footprint," he said of the merits of M&A.