Quantifying the macroeconomic impact of geopolitical risk
BankUnderground
APRIL 24, 2024
Julian Reynolds Policymakers and market participants consistently cite geopolitical developments as a key risk to the global economy and financial system. But how can one quantify the potential macroeconomic effects of these developments? Applying local projections to a popular metric of geopolitical risk, I show that geopolitical risk weighs on GDP in the central case and increases the severity of adverse outcomes.
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